Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Fire Fox]

why should we not expect strong 1st line if 2nd line is supposedly so 'exciting'?

See the Company's PR date 06/15/2011 reporting results of Bavi plus PC in 49 front-line NSCLC patients in a single arm trial. The MOS enhancement was 20%, i.e. 12.4 months in Bavi arm vs 10.3 months in PC arm.

The pending front-line trial we are waiting on had no hard-to-treat squamous cell patients so the current trial may do slightly better. Personally I am hoping for something like a 25% enhancement between Bavi arm and control arm

But the big point is that we will attract a huge amount of BP attention if the MOS enhancement in the new trial just matches the 20% figure back in 06/15/2011 because 19.4% is the MOS enhancement that Avastin achieved in their benchmark 2006 front line NSCLC trial with PC-- AND WE ONLY HAVE TO MATCH AVASTIN EFFICACY TO HAVE A PROVEN BLOCKBUSTER BECAUSE BAVI'S SAFETY PROFILE IS SO MUCH BETTER !

A 20-25% MOS enhancement in front-line may not be enough to "move the needle" for retail investors because they will compare it to 60% for 2nd line, but for BP's all Bavi has to do when combined with PC (i.e. the standard of care in front line) is match Avastin and suddenly Bavi becomes the obvious front runner drug for all NSCLC patients.





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